Carrier Global shares tumbled 8% in premarket trading Thursday after the HVAC manufacturer reported a fourth-quarter sales miss and issued a cautious 2026 outlook. The company cited persistent challenges in the residential market and inventory adjustments by distributors in the Americas as primary drivers for the lackluster performance.
The company reported a quarterly profit of $53 million, or 6 cents per share, a sharp decline from the $2.5 billion recorded during the same period last year. While the prior year’s figures were bolstered by a significant gain from the sale of its commercial refrigeration business, the latest results failed to meet market expectations. Excluding one-off items, adjusted earnings reached 34 cents per share, missing the FactSet analyst consensus of 36 cents.
Total sales for the quarter dropped 6% to $4.84 billion, falling short of the $4.98 billion anticipated by Wall Street. The decline was even more pronounced in organic sales, which slipped 9%. Management attributed the contraction to a combination of weakening residential demand and aggressive distributor de-stocking across the Americas region.
Lowered Expectations for 2026
The company’s forward-looking guidance also disappointed investors. Carrier now projects 2026 adjusted earnings of $2.80 per share on revenue of $22 billion, both trailing analyst estimates of $2.87 per share and $22.48 billion in sales. This forecast includes a projected $350 million revenue headwind stemming from the divestiture of its Riello business.
The struggle within the residential HVAC sector appears to be a broader trend. Rival Lennox International recently reported similar headwinds, noting that softness in its home comfort solutions segment weighed on its fourth-quarter profits despite an overall optimistic outlook for the coming years.
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