Kering Braces for Profit Slump as Gucci Struggle Weighs on 2025 Outlook

The anticipated downturn is largely driven by a cooling performance at Gucci, which is forecasted to see organic sales drop 19% to approximately 6 billion euros. For the fourth quarter alone, group sales are estimated at 3.93 billion euros, down from 4.39 billion euros a year prior. This persistent slide in top-line growth is expected to nearly halve net profit, with consensus estimates placing the figure at 681 million euros, compared to 1.13 billion euros in 2024.

The Path to Revival

Despite the bleak figures, investors are searching for signs of stabilization under Gucci CEO Francesca Bellettini. Analysts at Jefferies noted that while the brand has weathered a "rough patch," early indicators of Bellettini's strategic pivot are encouraging. The brand’s ability to recapture consumer interest remains the central pillar for the group’s recovery, though the transition period has proved more prolonged than initially anticipated. While shares have dropped more than 13% since the start of 2026, they remain up roughly 8% over the past 12 months.

The broader luxury landscape remains fraught with external pressures ranging from geopolitical instability to shifting sentiment in key markets. According to JPMorgan, tensions between Japan and China continue to dampen investor confidence in Asian demand, even as the bank maintains that "product newness" could eventually spark a rebound. Meanwhile, Bernstein analyst Luca Solca warned that heightened geopolitical risks could trigger a "sudden stop" in the stock markets, potentially destabilizing U.S. consumer confidence, which has historically served as a vital support for global luxury sales.