U.S. Crude Inventories Poised for Third Straight Weekly Decline

Commercial crude stocks are projected to have fallen by 400,000 barrels to 419.9 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 6. The consensus among nine surveyed analysts reflects a fractured market outlook: five respondents anticipate a decline, while four predict a build. Estimates vary widely, ranging from a 4.6 million-barrel withdrawal to a 2.6 million-barrel increase.

Diverging Fuel Trends

While crude levels tighten, gasoline inventories are expected to edge higher. Analysts forecast a 300,000-barrel increase, bringing total gasoline stocks to 258.2 million barrels. Conversely, distillate fuel stocks—primarily diesel—are set for a significant drop. The survey suggests a 2.1 million-barrel decline, though forecasts for this category remain volatile, with one firm predicting a withdrawal as high as 4.1 million barrels.

Refinery activity remains a critical driver of these inventory shifts. Capacity utilization is expected to dip slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 90.2%, a level that remains high for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will provide the definitive figures when it releases its weekly report on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST.